One Nation’s proposal to sharply reduce Australia’s migration intake has come under renewed scrutiny after conflicting explanations from members of the party raised questions about how its headline figure would work in practice.

Party leader Pauline Hanson has maintained that One Nation wants net overseas migration (NOM) reduced to 130,000 people a year. However, comments from fellow MP David Farley suggested that certain workers including people entering through Pacific labour programs and some essential skilled occupations — could sit outside the figure.

That interpretation would potentially bring the effective number closer to 230,000, creating a significant gap between the party’s headline target and the number of people who could actually enter Australia.

The debate comes as Australia’s migration levels remain well above pre-pandemic patterns. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, net overseas migration was about 306,000 in 2024–25, down substantially from the post-pandemic peak of around 538,000.

The federal government expects NOM to continue falling, with Treasury forecasting it to reach around 225,000 by 2027–28.

One Nation’s proposed figure would therefore represent a major reduction from current levels.

But NOM is not simply a visa quota. It measures the difference between people arriving and leaving Australia who meet the ABS definition of a long-term migrant. That means the final figure can also be influenced by Australians returning home, temporary workers, students and other groups.

The issue has also raised concerns about industries that rely heavily on overseas workers. Agriculture, construction, healthcare and hospitality have all faced labour shortages in recent years, making the composition of any migration cuts just as important as the headline number.

The Coalition has also indicated it wants migration linked more closely to housing supply, while Labor has yet to announce its full strategy for bringing migration down.

With the parties offering increasingly different approaches, the debate is moving beyond how many migrants Australia should accept and towards which migrants the country needs.