Australia’s housing shortage is becoming a central issue in the debate over how many migrants the country can sustainably accommodate, with the federal Opposition proposing a significant reduction in annual migration levels.

Opposition housing spokesperson Andrew Bragg is expected to advocate for an average annual net overseas migration figure of 180,000, arguing that population growth should be better matched to the country’s capacity to build new homes.

The scale of the proposed reduction is significant. Treasury modelling cited by SBS expects net overseas migration to decline from around 301,000 to 225,000 by the end of the decade. The Opposition’s proposed 180,000 figure would therefore be considerably lower than the level currently forecast.

The policy debate is not limited to migration. The Coalition is also proposing major changes to Australia’s building regulations, arguing that construction costs and regulatory requirements are contributing to the housing affordability problem.

The proposed reform would replace the existing National Construction Code, which runs to more than 2,000 pages, with an approximately 80-page “Basic Australian Standard.” The proposed framework would focus on fundamental requirements such as structural integrity, fire safety and health, while making some other features optional.

Another proposal is the creation of a national catalogue of model homes that could receive automatic approval from state and territory authorities, with the aim of speeding up construction.

However, the exact migration target remains subject to political discussion. Opposition treasury spokesperson Tim Wilson stopped short of confirming the 180,000 figure before Bragg’s speech, saying the party had not yet formally announced its final position.

The debate comes as Australia continues to face pressure from rising housing costs, limited supply and strong population growth.

At its core, the proposal raises a broader policy question: Should migration levels be determined partly by how quickly Australia can build enough homes to accommodate a growing population?