Australia’s planned overhaul of the National Disability Insurance Scheme is moving closer to parliament, but uncertainty remains over what happens to participants who no longer meet the scheme’s proposed eligibility requirements.

The Albanese government is seeking to reshape the $52.6 billion NDIS, arguing that rapid growth in spending has made reform necessary to keep the program financially sustainable. Under the proposed changes, around 300,000 people could eventually lose access to the scheme and instead receive support through new foundational services funded jointly by the Commonwealth, states and territories.

The transition is becoming one of the most closely watched parts of the reform.

NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister has said the government wants alternative services operating alongside changes to eligibility. However, she has also left open the possibility of delaying participant exits if those supports are not ready, while stressing that a delay is not currently being considered.

One area attracting particular attention is the planned Thriving Kids program, designed to provide support for children under eight with developmental delays and mild autism. Queensland has yet to commit to the initiative, adding another layer of uncertainty to the national rollout.

State and territory governments have previously warned that they may not be able to establish the replacement services within the timeframe proposed by Canberra.

The government estimates the NDIS reforms could reduce federal spending by $37.8 billion over four years. Officials are also highlighting stronger action against providers and individuals suspected of misconduct. During the June quarter, 111 banning orders were issued, while 229 new provider registrations were refused and 453 existing registrations were revoked.

Another major focus is funding for social and community participation supports. These services currently cost taxpayers about $12 billion, with government projections suggesting the figure could reach $20 billion by the end of the decade without intervention.

For participants and families, the central issue is increasingly clear: reform may change the NDIS, but the success of the transition will depend on whether suitable support is available when people leave the scheme.