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Record Breaking 2025 Migration: Australia Hits Highest Ever Net Permanent and Long-Term Arrivals
Australia’s migration intake in 2025 has reached record territory, with new data confirming the highest-ever levels of net permanent and long-term arrivals and cementing migration as the dominant driver of Australia’s population growth.
Record arrivals in 2025
- Net permanent and long-term migrant arrivals between January and September 2025 totalled 415,760, the highest figure ever recorded for the first nine months of a year and 6 per cent higher than the 2024 record for the same period.
- Over the 12 months to 30 September 2025, net permanent and long-term arrivals reached 468,390, surpassing the previous annual record (to September) set in 2024 by about 4 per cent.
- Analysts note that this measure, derived from the ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures database, has become a key early indicator of future net overseas migration outcomes, as it tracks permanent and long-term movements ahead of formal Net Overseas Migration (NOM) revisions.
How this compares with history
- In the five years before Covid-19, Australia averaged around 515,000 migrant arrivals per year, with most on temporary visas, but total net overseas migration was lower than the current permanent-and-long-term surge.
- The ABS reports net overseas migration of 306,000 in 2024–25, down from 429,000 a year earlier, yet permanent and long-term arrivals data show that 2025 is again pushing migration indicators to record highs, especially when measured over year-to-September or year-to-October periods.
- Separate analysis of ABS data shows that net permanent and long-term arrivals in the 12 months to 31 October 2025 climbed to about 476,070, the highest 12-months-to-October result on record and around 6 per cent above the equivalent 2024 figure.
Population growth and demographic shift
- ABS population figures show Australia’s population grew by 1.8 per cent in the year to 30 September 2024, driven primarily by net overseas migration rather than natural increase as birth rates fall and the population ages.
- Demographers note that migration has become increasingly central to Australia’s long-term population strategy, with earlier data showing that more than 30 per cent of Australians were born overseas in 2023, the highest share since the late 19th century.
- Experts argue that post-pandemic migration has already more than offset the temporary collapse in arrivals during border closures and is now gradually replacing natural population increase as the main engine of growth.
Pressures on housing, services and infrastructure
- The new record inflows are intensifying pressure on housing markets, with analysts warning that adding more than 460,000 net long-term migrants in a year compounds existing rental shortages and affordability problems in major cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
- Planning and economic commentary link high migration to growing strain on public infrastructure, including transport, health, education and energy systems, particularly where state and local investment has not kept pace with population growth.
- Industry groups acknowledge that migration helps fill workforce gaps, especially in construction, health and care sectors, but argue that coordination between migration settings, housing supply and infrastructure funding is now critical to social cohesion.
Political debate and policy context
- The Federal Government has maintained its 185,000-place Permanent Migration Program for 2025–26 while tightening some student and temporary visa rules, signalling a preference for targeted skilled migration rather than open-ended growth.
- Critics, including some think tanks, describe current settings as a de facto “Big Australia” policy and argue that record permanent and long-term arrivals show migration is “out of control” relative to housing and infrastructure capacity.
- Academic and policy experts caution that permanent and long-term movement figures are not the same as official Net Overseas Migration and say misuse of these statistics is fuelling misleading claims about a “mass migration crisis”.
What it means for multicultural Australia
- For migrants, the record numbers underscore that Australia remains a high-demand destination, drawing skilled workers, students, families and long-term settlers with its relative economic strength and political stability.
- For multicultural communities, these trends mean continued growth in linguistic, cultural and religious diversity, but also sharper debates over who benefits from migration and who bears the costs in terms of housing stress and access to services.
- Community leaders are urging governments at all levels to pair migration planning with strong investment in social cohesion, settlement services and anti-discrimination programs to ensure new arrivals can contribute fully without intensifying divisions.
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