Australia’s forests dying as brutal heatwave pushes fire danger to extremes across southeast
Australia’s forests are experiencing rapidly rising tree death rates at the same time
as a major heatwave drives extreme fire danger across Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, raising grave concerns about ecosystem collapse, carbon emissions and community safety. Scientists say climate change is now clearly accelerating both forest mortality and dangerous heat events, pushing even hardy Australian
landscapes towards their limits.
Forests quietly dying
New national research published in Nature Plants shows tree death rates have increased across all major Australian forest types from Tasmania to the Top End over recent decades, closely tracking rising temperatures and drying linked to climate change. Researchers analyses more than 200,000 individual trees from nearly 1,000 species over 80-plus years of data and found mortality has roughly doubled in many forests, even after excluding deaths from logging and bush fire.
Scientists warn this trend means forests will absorb less carbon dioxide and may begin releasing more carbon than they store, undermining one of the planet’s most important natural buffers against climate change. A separate recent study found tropical rain forests in Australia are already close to or beyond this tipping point, with hotter, drier conditions stressing species that evolved to withstand tough environments.
Heatwave grips southeastern Australia
At the same time, southeastern Australia is being hit by what the Bureau of Meteorology describes as the most significant heatwave in at least six years, with severe to extreme heatwave conditions stretching more than 3,500 kilometers from Western Australia to Tasmania. Forecasts point to temperatures in the mid40s for parts of Victoria, South Australia and inland New South Wales, with nights staying unusually warm and offering little relief.
Authorities in Victoria and South Australia have declared total fire bans in multiple districts, warning of dangerous fire weather as hot, dry air combines with strong
winds and cured grass. Fire agencies are urging residents in high risk areas to review their bush fire plans, reconsider travel in fire prone regions and be prepared to leave early on days of extreme danger.
Tasmania’s unusual heat
Northern and central Tasmania are also under severe heatwave warnings, with maximums forecast in the high 20s to low 30s sustained over several days well above what is considered normal for the state’s cooler climate. The Bureau of
Meteorology explains that a severe heatwave is declared when minimum and
maximum temperatures stay “unusually hot” for at least three days compared with
local climate records.
A hot air mass has traveled from inland Western Australia across the continent, becoming more intense as it moved east and south, setting up the prolonged burst of heat now gripping Tasmania and the mainland. Tasmanian fire authorities are already dealing with a challenging season, after recent fires destroyed homes in Dolphin Sands and Stieglitz in the state’s northeast.
Climate change link and future risks
Climate scientists say the coupling of accelerating tree deaths and more frequent,
longer heatwaves is a clear sign that climate change is reshaping Australia’s landscapes faster than many models predicted. Rising mortality weakens forests’
ability to store carbon and buffer local climates, while heatwaves increase the risk of catastrophic bush fires that can further devastate ecosystems and communities.
Researchers emphasis that understanding exactly how heat and drought kill trees through water stress, repeated heatwaves or other physiological limits is now critical to planning any adaptation, including which species to plant and how to manage forests in a hotter world. At the same time, agencies are calling for stronger preparedness at community level, from improved early warning systems to detailed household fire plans, as extreme heat becomes a more regular feature of Australian summers.
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