University of Queensland Study Shows Decline in Tobacco Use, Surge in Illicit Tobacco and Vaping
A new study from the University of Queensland reveals that while general tobacco use is dropping across Australia, the rates of vaping and illicit tobacco consumption are on the rise.
The research, led by Dr. Zhe Wang of the Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, analysed wastewater samples collected from 55 treatment plants across the country, covering more than half of Australia’s population. The samples, gathered between 2017 and 2023, showed a significant decrease in overall nicotine levels, with the most notable reductions in outer regional and remote areas.
“Nicotine levels were found to be decreasing nationwide,” said Dr. Wang. “However, the proportion of illicit tobacco detected in wastewater jumped from 9 percent to 33 percent over the study period.”
The study also found that nicotine from vaping and alternative products, such as gum and patches, increased from 5.4 percent to 26.3 percent. While some vaping products are accessed legally via medical prescriptions, researchers warn that the rising cost of cigarettes may be fuelling an illegal vaping market.
Illicit tobacco consumption in Australia rose sharply—from about 1,350 tonnes to 3,400 tonnes over the seven years studied. The research team cross-referenced their wastewater findings with tobacco sales and illicit tobacco seizure data to confirm the trend.
These results have been highlighted in the latest report by the Illicit Tobacco Enforcement Commissioner (ITEC), which estimates that half of all tobacco products sold in Australia are now illicit
Associate Professor Phong Thai, a co-author of the study, acknowledged the positive trend of declining tobacco use but emphasised that more action is needed. “Smoking remains the leading risk factor for premature mortality and morbidity in Australia. While the illicit tobacco market could hinder progress toward the national goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 5 percent or less by 2030, it is encouraging that overall smoking rates are still falling. However, targeted efforts against the illicit tobacco market are urgently needed.”
The study underscores the complex landscape of tobacco control in Australia, suggesting that while public health measures are effective in reducing legal tobacco use, further strategies are necessary to address the growing challenges of illicit tobacco and vaping.
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