Record arrivals and population change

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show around 415,760 permanent and long‑term arrivals from January to September 2025, the highest number ever recorded for this period, and about 468,390 arrivals in the 12 months to September. September 2025 alone logged roughly 35,890 permanent and long‑term arrivals, confirming that elevated migration has become Australia’s “new normal” as the country relies more heavily on overseas talent.

At the same time, Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to around 1.48 births per woman, the lowest level since national records began in 1921, with every state and territory recording sharp declines since 2019. The ACT’s fertility rate has dropped to about 1.27 and New South Wales has recorded its lowest number of births in 20 years, making immigration essential to maintaining population growth, tax revenue and funding for essential services.

Trans‑Tasman talent flow

New Zealand’s latest migration statistics reveal a dramatic outflow in 2025, with about 72,700 citizens leaving in the year to September, the highest figure on record. The net migration loss of roughly 46,400 New Zealanders, most of whom are relocating to Australia, reflects the stronger Australian labour market and higher wages on offer across key sectors.

Arrivals from New Zealand to Australia remain close to pre‑COVID peaks, reinforcing Australia’s position as the region’s most attractive destination for skilled workers and graduates seeking long‑term settlement. For employers and policymakers, this trend underlines Australia’s growing role as a magnet for regional talent at a time of global competition for skills.

Housing, infrastructure and skills crunch

One of the central themes in the December 2025 update is the collision between ambitious housing and infrastructure targets and a tightening labour market. To reach the national goal of building 1.2 million new homes by 2029, Westpac CEO Anthony Miller has urged the federal government to prioritise skilled migrants, fast‑track regional housing development and use immigration policy as a key lever to fill labour gaps.

Migrants currently make up about one quarter of the Australian construction workforce, yet only around 5 per cent of new workers joining the industry in the past five years have come from overseas. Infrastructure Australia has highlighted a projected shortfall of roughly 300,000 skilled construction workers by 2027, linked to a national infrastructure pipeline valued at about 242 billion dollars, warning of serious delays and cost blowouts unless skilled visa settings are reformed quickly.

Sectors most in demand

The biggest gaps are emerging in civil construction, electrical and energy trades, engineering, renewable energy projects and project management roles. For skilled migrants, this translates into strong demand across visa programs such as the Skilled Independent (189), Skilled Nominated (190), Skilled Work Regional (491) and employer‑sponsored pathways, particularly in states and regions facing acute shortages.

New student visa rules: MD115

A major policy shift for international students has arrived in the form of Ministerial Direction 115 (MD115), which replaces the previous MD111 and reshapes how student visas are processed. Under MD115, processing speed is now tied to how close an education provider is to its allocated student capacity and to its visa and compliance performance, creating clear incentives for responsible growth.

Education providers operating below 80 per cent of their allocated capacity are placed in faster processing lanes, while institutions above 115 per cent capacity move into the slowest lanes, where visa decisions can take 8–12 weeks. Providers with high refusal rates or compliance concerns may also be automatically “slow‑laned”, while priority goes to universities that expand student housing, deepen recruitment in Southeast Asia and invest in transnational education models.

The National Planning Level for 2026 will lift international student places from about 270,000 to 295,000, confirming that international education is being used as a long‑term workforce strategy as well as an export earner. Policy changes aim to give students stronger links to employment, better access to internships and clearer pathways to skilled visas in sectors such as healthcare, education, technology, engineering and regional services.

Human stories and 2026 outlook

December’s migrant spotlight, as profiled by the Office of Immigration Australia, focuses on a graduate who successfully broke into the Australian agriculture sector and offers practical advice to newcomers. The story emphasises the importance of simplifying resumes, building interview confidence, asking questions, starting early even in junior roles and building networks, with opportunities often arriving faster once a migrant has their first Australian job.

For skilled professionals planning to migrate in 2026, specialists recommend getting skills assessments underway, securing competitive English test results, updating Expressions of Interest and understanding which states and territories are actively seeking their occupation. With record migration, record‑low fertility, rising trans‑Tasman flows and a looming 300,000‑worker infrastructure gap, demand for skilled migrants is growing faster than supply, and the doors to Australia are wide open for those prepared to move.

“This MAN TV report draws on official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Infrastructure Australia, New Zealand migration statistics and analysis by the Office of Immigration Australia, which first compiled these December 2025 insights.”